Monday, August 14, 2017

Why is Bitcoin Price Rising. The Answer May Not Be What You Think.

Greater adoption especially in Japan. True.
Higher prices leading to greater interest and media hype. True.
Large investors and hedge funds investing. Also True.
More people trust the Core developers. Perhaps True.
Segwit is locked in and will activate soon. Maybe True.

But what if the people in control allow it !?

So who are these people in control? They are the people who simply by their action will affect the price. No, not the market manipulators as their desired results are not guaranteed and effect only temporary. No not the developers or even users. I am talking about the people in control of the hashing (mining) power, and by their action supporting or withdrawing their hashing, affects the success or failure of a chain.

For the first time in Bitcoin history. if the miners withdraw their mining power from mining BTC, transactions on the BTC chain will grind to a halt. ( See Chain Death Spiral ) Block confirmation time will be exceeding long and user experience so bad that BTC's price will collapse. Just the announcement that they will do so is enough to affect the price negatively.

So why have they not done so before? Well, prior to the fork, they will only hurt themselves as they mine and hold BTC. Today they have another option. When this strategy plays out, their plan will make them all the money that they have dreamed about.

Some of the miners with about 40 percent of the mining power have fought a very bitter battle for big blocks over several years. It was a very nasty, very open spat with both sides spewing verbal diarrhea on social media. This will not be settled by just a simple agreement and bear in mind that none of the Core developers were present or signed the NYA agreement.

We hear justifications like :
  • Miners mine the most profitable coin. True, but this is economic action not strategy.
  • Miners will honor their agreement. Money talks. Everything else is just noise.
  • Segwit and BTC is better technology. Better technology does not always win. 

Core developers are not the same as the army of programmers and developers pulling for Segwit and Side chains and Lightning. I cannot fault their passion, zeal and dedication. However they are just being used to push an agenda.

Core developers do not want Segwit2X and have openly said so even coding to exclude Segwit2X transactions. They did not expect the BCH fork, but even so, are perfectly happy with BTC as it is, even if it loses to the other chain. There will be no Segwit2X. Simply put there are no developers for Segwit2X. Core developers will not be coding for Segwit2X.

The Big Reveal.

This is the Rich List as at 13 August 2017. The numbers may not be 100% accurate but they do paint an unmistakable picture.
                                                      BTC      BCH                        BTC            BCH
                     10000 - 1000000     121         121                        3011886      3310777     +298891
                     1000  -  10000         1666       1688           +22     3544974      3635319      - 90345
                     100   -   1000           16594     16160        -434     3840815      3726874     -113941
                     10   -     100             129880   122874    -7006     4344270      4183607     -160663
                     1   -       10               464743   424298   -40445    1277766      1163236     -114530

Most of the BCH coins about 300K have been gobbled up by the top bracket of 121 addresses. If BCH and BTC flips at current valuation, it will mean a windfall of just over 1 Billion dollars now. When this finally plays out, it will make the "Big Short" look like a pauper's picnic.

All the rhetoric encouraging BTC owners to sell their BCH for BTC, and media hype pushing up BTC price helps their strategy, without them lifting a finger. All that is left to do is switch the chain when they are right and ready. Don't get caught on the losing side.

P/S Please share. Help your fellow bitcoiners get the best information before they make the investment of their future. Fear Of Missing Out especially now can lead to unwitting mistakes and losses.

Update 15 August 2017

                          BTC      BCH       TOT        BTC     BCH         BTC       BCH         BTC
                           ( Hash Power )                   ( Difficulty)           ( Block Time )    (mempool)
31 July                 6163                                    860                    
1 August              6440     1525      7965         860        860        9.66        160              5
2 August              6433      378                        860        860        9.47        205              5
3 August              5931      447                        860        860      10.43          41            10
4 August              7749      216       7965         860        225        8.04          75            23
5 August              7473      143       7617         860        225        8.13        110              5
6 August              6023      499       6612         860        114       10.28         22              3
7 August              6637      551       7188         860        114         9.41         18            33    
8 August              6835      154       6989         923        115         8.78         62            35
9 August              6200      541       6741         923        115       10.43         15            43
10 August            6165      576       6741         923        115       10.74         14            42
11 August            6600      338       6938         923        115       10.00         21            55
12 August            6199      416       6615         923        115       10.66         20            15
13 August            6808      440       7248         923        115         9.73         18.46       27
14 August            5951      522       6473         923        115        11.07        15.82       47

Floating                                           1492

14 August - Hash Power on BTC reduced to 5951 PH and increased on BCH to 522 PH. The BTC chain is starting to slow, with mempool at 47MB and Blocktime 11.07 minutes. It will be interesting to see if the hash power increases tomorrow.

The amount of 1492 PH in red is the difference (7965 - 6473) between the highest recorded and today. That amount of hash power exist but is not on the network. Somebody controls it. Watch what they do with it. BCH price is rising (0.072) as the BCT chain gets slower. Let us watch as BCH retake its' position as the Real Bitcoin. More To Come. Keep Sharing.