Monday, November 13, 2017

The Flippening, BTC to BCH The Last Mile

We had a glimpse of the flippening on 12 November when the ATH for BCH reached $2800. There were many people who truly believe that the flippening was actually going to eventuate. You could smell the fear. Well as they say " You ain't seen nothing yet". To explain it all we have to enlist the help of some chartist. Like me, most of you, are not day traders so will have very little understanding of Elliot wave theory, but would just like some inkling of how events are going to play out in the next few days.

1) What we know

a) BCH upgraded to a new EDA which just activated at block 504031. The wild gyrations in difficulty should be a thing of the past and miners will be more incentivise to stay mining on the BCH chain. This time, once the BTC chain come into the orbit, of the death grip, of the Chain Death Spiral, they will not be "rescued" by a BCH difficulty adjustment.

b) Many people wanting to sell BTC to purchase BCH have their transactions stuck in the huge mempool backlog now at 114 MB. God only knows how much sell pressure is locked up in the mempool. Just means that when the next wave hits it will be stronger than the last which was already a record at about 8 Billion dollars. It was a third of BCH market cap.

c) Segwit2X activation is scheduled at block 494784, another 543 blocks or in just under 4 days. Will Bitpico carry out their promise to start mining the Segwit2X chain? Thus far, out of the 14.5 Exa hashes of mining power available, only 10.5 EH is mining on the BCH and BTC chain combined. These 4 EH when they are deployed will be the final thrust sending BTC into the CDS and effectively evicting it from the Bitcoin mining ecosystem.

d) BTC still needs 1690 blocks for the next difficulty adjustment. BTC may never see another difficulty adjustment and they will most probably fork off the current Proof Of Work, as proposed by Cobra. This in an attempt to keep the Bitcoin name. However it is futile, as Bitcoin can refer to any particular blockchain. It is Generic.

Even the BTC handle can be change by exchanges and wallets. Bitcoin Cash was referred to as either BCH or BCC by exchanges and wallets but we all know they mean Bitcoin Cash. There is no register to claim a name. It is just naming by consensus. If BCH is the only coin left on the current POW, it will be referred to as Bitcoin. It contains the Genesis block and all the properties that we know, love and accept as Bitcoin.

e) BCH transaction volume is fast catching up with BTC. This means that a large chunk of institutional players have and are moving over to Bitcoin Cash. It is just impossible to use BTC for any kind of  "normal business" transaction. What the small blockers should honestly admit is that if a coin is not being used it has no value.

2) The Juicy Parts

If you have followed this blog you probably also believe that BCH will take over BTC as the real bitcoin. To have an idea on when and how this will play out we refer to some chartist predictions. I do not follow chartist or day trade but taken in totality with what we know we can derive trends and gain some idea of time horizons.

His last video correctly predicted the ATH of $2800 on 12 November. Then came the correction. His long term prediction based on Elliot wave theory, predicts a third wave peak at $3300 and a fifth wave peak at $4500.

Taken with what we know, in 4 days Segwit2X activates and Bitpico may start mining the chain. This may be the third wave pushing BCH price to $3300 close to 1.0 BTC (50% BTC market cap). This will panic hard core holders to defend BTC by pushing up BTC price and selling down BCH. That will be the expected Elliot wave correction leading into the 5 wave push to $4500 or about 1.25 BTC. If this happens it is game over for BTC.

I don't sadvice trading into any of these predictions. Basically holding on to your BCH is the safest and best policy. The above scenario may be all done and dusted within 2 weeks. I will not want to miss any part of this exciting phase of Bitcoin history "for all the tea in China". The last run was memorable, was it not?


You can read about the process on Segwit2X hard fork effect on the flippening here.

Segwit2X Still Go - Complete Wealth Transfer

Wealth Transfer In Progress

You can read about the Chain Death Spiral Here

Chain Death Spiral

Elliot Wave. - In my very limited understanding, they are basically fractals pattern and are all nested within each other. So if you look deeper into smaller time frame on the charts you see the same 5 wave pattern. On the long time scale the third wave is at $3300 and 5th wave at $4500. From our knowledge of what is happening we narrow the time frame to within the next 2 weeks for the fifth wave to play out. Let us see if it is as we expect.