Wednesday, January 31, 2018

Will Bitcoin Segwit Recover its' All Time High Or Go to Zero?

Bitcoin Segwit proponents have spent more that the last 2 years arguing that BTC is a store of value and should not be used for everyday transactions. They have even proposed that transactions can be conducted on Ethereum and Litecoin. Now they are actively touting Lightning as the killer innovation that will make Bitcoin great again.

I find this argument hard to swallow because experience tells me that it is difficult to win customers and nearly impossible to win them back, if they left because of poor customer service. It is no different for Bitcoin. BTC is a product and transactions on the blockchain is a service. Gaining converts was hard, very hard. Now look at how easy it is to lose them.


Using the Sent From Addresses as an approximation to number of users, we see that in less than a month ( 4 January to 1 February ), the number of users fell 60% from 536K to 218K. 

Where have these "customers" gone?

Since the all time high of 19.5K on 17 December, BTC price have dropped to 10K today. Some call it a correction but I will argue that the correction ended 7 January.  Since then the drop in price have tracked the decline in the number of users as shown in the graph above.



It looks like even the most ardent supporters of BTC are no longer buying into the promises of Core developers. BTC's price drop is more than just a correction and the bear market, because Ethereum's price is bucking this trend. 

Since 1 August a large number of BTC users have moved to Alt coins and many have gone all-in to Bitcoin Cash. It would now appear that, even those vehemently against Bitcoin Cash are leaving and moving to Ethereum. This can only mean that Ethereum will soon replace BTC as the top coin in terms of market share.

What about the flippening?

Bitcoin Cash is only 6 months old. The flippening will happen soon enough after BTC loses its' market dominance to Ethereum. Bitcoin Cash will have to convince the market that it is the real Bitcoin and that Bitcoin Segwit was the fork, before it can unseat Ethereum. This will happen because Ethereum was never designed to be a monetary token. For now it can be a "store of value".