Tuesday, January 9, 2018

Why Bitcoin Core Holds Its' Value - Incumbency and the Bitcoin Brand

If we were launching 2 versions of Bitcoin today, one with slow transactions and high fees and the other with fast transactions and low fees, there is no doubt which one will gain adoption and command a higher price. Yet the reality is that Bitcoin Core (BTC), the one with slow transactions and high fees is valued 10 times more that of Bitcoin Cash (BCH). Why is that?

Update 12/1/2017 Largest mining farm in the world goes online next week. Means huge increase in hashrate for BCH. Calvin Ayrn is connected with Craig Wright. This is a very big nail in BTC's coffin. ( There is a correlation between price and hash rate. hey say hashrate follows price, but what if hashrate is deliberate ? I presume then price would follow. BCH could double to $5000 next week. )

Update 14/1/2017 BTC dominance is now 32.5% The smart money is leaving and it is moving to Ethereum. The strategy of suppressing BCH price by selling into any bull run is ended because they have run out of BCH. Scenario : If you are holding BTC, you need to exit or watch your asset value drop day by day. You can't move into BCH as that will drive down BTC's price faster. New money is no longer coming in faster than you can divest. Best option is to move into Ethereum. Tide is turning now and when the people finally grasp that BCH can do everything that Ethereum can because it is turing complete and you don't need to spend gas to run your smart contracts, BCH will be number1 and start gaining market dominance accomplishing what BTC could never achieve under Core.

Incumbency and the Bitcoin brand.

BTC has incumbency, and the Bitcoin Brand, which was the intangible idea for which we all worked so hard to promote and develop until it achieve value. Its' value is derived from the accumulated mindshare of all the people who believed in that idea. Unfortunately the brand was taken over by a new group of developers from Gavin Andresen.

Wow. Were we not told that nobody controls Bitcoin? So how can anyone "take over" Bitcoin? Well, Bitcoin is a software like Windows. Even though it is open sourced, someone or a group is in charged of what, how and when changes are made to the software. They do this by controlling the access keys to the Github repository where the software is kept.

From mid 2010, Satoshi handed these keys to Gavin Andresen who nurtured the project and brought it to life. Besides maintaining the software, he also set up Bitcoin faucets and gave away thousands of Bitcoins to anyone and everyone who wanted them. Later he invited other software developers like Wladimir Van De Laan to help him. ( Much of the details in the link are not factually correct eg Satoshi Nakamoto. Note Core supporters penchant for telling lies and half truths ).

To cut a long story short, Gavin was unceremoniously elbowed out and his Github access was revoked in April 2014. This act in itself should speak volumes about the people who have taken over the project. Excuses that he was no longer contributing or that his account access was compromised does not wash. He was a proponent for bigger blocks and they were against it. They also accuse him of being duped by Craig Wright thus casting doubts on his security and judgement.

Incumbency is a very strong factor to overcome and as of today the Bitcoin brand is worth at least $15,000 per coin.

Mass Campaign of untruth and half-truth against Bitcoin Cash

If anything should raise a red flag, it is censorship. Granted that some level of moderation is required to keep discussions amicable but it should be done within reason and a with a light touch. If you need proof on censorship, just post anything about Bitcoin Cash, high fees or slow transactions on r/bitcoin.

Another is the need to resort to slander, ridicule and name calling. Calling Bitcoin Cash - Bcash, Btrash, Shitcoin, is an indication that you are unable to win a proper argument on merit. For the more intelligent supporters condoning this behavior on the basis that "they may be bastards but they are our bastards" is inexcusable.

Up till 1 August the two coins were the same. Then to solve a 3 year scaling debate BCH enabled blocks bigger than 1 MB, while BTC opted to discard Address signatures from the data set (Segwit). You would think then that both system should work but that is not so. BTC is still slow with expensive fees while BCH worked exactly as promised right out of the box. So now we have the BTC spin doctors in full retard spewing falsehood and half truths.

a) Half truth :- BCH does not have many transactions.  In reality BCH can eliminate all the backlog in BTC and then some. BCH has to rebuild a user base. Users and transactions will increase. This will erode the value of BTC's incumbency soon enough.

b) Half truth :- Roger Ver and Jihan Wu controls Bitcoin Cash.  Spouting accusation without fact checking and proof only works if you can control the narrative, misrepresent, and censor speech. If there people choose to put their money behind a project it is their right.

c) Half truth :- Miners controls Bitcoin Cash. Antpool and ViaBtc are also large miners of BTC. Is that also not worth mentioning in the same sentence?

d) Half truth :- With large blocks, the blockchain will bloat and soon few people can store a full copy of the blockchain. Not mentioning the impact of technology is like speaking only through one side of their mouths. Downright deceitful.

e) Half truth :- Bitcoin is open source, anyone can contribute. When there is only one client, there is no competition, and no need to respond to changes that they do not agree with. If you put up proposals and they are always rejected, you tend to get the message and give up.

f) Half truth :- Running full nodes on computers as small as Raspberry PI decentralises the system. Truth is that only mining nodes add blocks and transactions to the blockchain. The rest can only verify and most people have no need nor the desire to personally verify their own transactions. Dictum : Good enough decentralisation is all that is needed. If the need arises the community will rise up to the challenge.

g) Half truth :- Bitcoin is a store of value. If they are talking about the same Bitcoin then it is suppose to be a "Peer-to-peer electronic cash system". That was Satoshi's vision. If you don't have that, then what have you got? Are you in it just for the money? Yes many of us are in it for the money, but we should never lose sight of the vision. To claim that it is now a "store of value" is to defend the indefensible. Examples :-

"If you just hodl you don't need to transact" or is it that you have to hodl because you can't transact.

"Wait for lightning it will make transaction cheap and fast" why bother if it is meant to be a store of value.

"It is useful because it is a digital currency" But they just claimed that it is not a currency. As we all know, if something is not useful, it is not worth anything.

h) Half truth :- Core developers are the smartest developers. That is an opinion not a fact. If they don't hold the keys to the Github repository, I am sure we will all have a different opinion on that.

i) Half truth :- Coinbase is guilty of insider trading BCH tokens. The proper meaning of insider trading, is the trading of one's own company shares, which is illegal. Trading commodities based on prerogative information is not insider trading. The purpose here is to link Coinbase and BCH to an undesirable activity and therefore "Bad". Guilty by association.

j) Half truth :- Segwit and Lightning will reduce fees. Six months of Segwit, and adoption is 10%. "It will reduce fees if everyone uses Segwit". Fact is that not everyone will use Segwit. In fact 90% don't. In this scenario you would think the problem must be with Segwit and not the users! To then propose a campaign of boycott ( Coinbase, Bitpay, Blockchain.info ) is infantile. Nobody did. (boycott) Which should tell them that their followers and their influence is not as large as they think it is. Incumbency is still on their side, but for how much longer.

l) Half truth :- Roger Ver is a scammer supports Mt Gox. Context. He is a Bitcoin evangelist, and we all know about bank's attitude to Bitcoin businesses in those days. Would you not say the same things if you were shown those same evidence? He is not an auditor and did not speak as one. He did not have any equity interest in Mt Gox. He had no knowledge on the operational activities of Mt Gox. On hindsight it was unwise. An innocent mistake by one who wants the best for Bitcoin and wanted to help anyway he could, legally. Bitfinnex had the same problems but they learned and took a different approach. As a result they recovered and are still in business.

The problem is inertia. Few people will change their habits is they don't have to. Giving them an option by soft forking means they don't have to. So why are they surprise? Now they have made the system unuseable and have driven away existing and potential users. Lightning will face the same problem. If Lightning works, and that is still an if, there may not be many users left to use it.

e) Untrue :- Bitcoin Cash development is centralised. If anything Bitcoin Core development is centralised with only one client. Bitcoin Cash has several client implementation including Bitcoin ABC, Bitcoin XT and Bitcoin Unlimited.

 f) Untrue :- Bitcoin Cash wants to steal the Bitcoin brand. Bitcoin Cash is Satoshi's vision of Bitcoin. It is still the essentially the same Bitcoin from 9 January 2009, except for changes to the Blocksize, which was capped at 1Mb in 2010 and increased to 8MB on 1 August 2017. Bitcoin Cash is the real Bitcoin. Gavin Andresen did not envisage a situation where another group would take control of the software. It was "stolen" from Gavin.

BCH cemented its' claim to being the real Bitcoin by staying on the same hashing algorithm as BTC. No other forked Bitcoin clone ( Bitcoin Gold, Bitcoin God, Bitcoin Platinum, etc) can achieve this. In doing so it now threatens BTC's ability to remain on the same hashing algorithm.

g) Untrue :- Bitcoin Cash want to remain a Model T Ford. In actual fact all the big blockers wanted was an immediate alleviation of the transaction and fee situation by a simple blocksize increase. They were not totally oppose to Segwit or the Lightning network. Since then they have hard forked twice proving that hard fork are not dangerous, and have committed to 6 monthly scheduled improvements. Bitcoin Cash will have the more interesting and exciting developments.

When the earliest adopters are speaking out, Listen.

Many of the earliest adopters have given up on Core and the path they have taken Bitcoin. These were the first people to see the potential in Bitcoin and promoted it before it had any value. Question the motives of people who taunt, slander, dismiss and belittle their contributions.

Gavin Andresen : First developer after Satoshi. Still contributing but to Bitcoin Cash.
Roger Ver : Bitcoin Jesus. First promoter and investor in Bitcoin start-ups.
Rick Falkvinge : Thought leader. BTC has failed.
Jeff Berwick : Anarchist. Dollar Vigilante.

The flippening.

I started this series of articles back in August predicting the flippening ( BCH replacing BTC ) and it seems like this is never going to happen. But like climate change, it is real and I based it on one premise. In the long run, BTC cannot survive on the same mining algorithm as BCH if it does not code in the EDA. (Chain Death Spiral). The power of incumbency is very strong but one by one these struts holding up the value of BTc are being removed .

The main strut are the exchanges. Every crypto exchange in the world trade BTC/fiat and BTC/crypto pairs.  Some have now introduced BCH/fiat pairs and CoinEx will use BCH as the base trading unit. Coinbase adding BCH was a big step.

A coin needs to be useful. We should be able to buy something or do something with it. Not just hold it. The reason for holding is so that you can do something with it in the future. You can see now how the "store of value" argument is "arse about face". With high fees BTC is not useful and for most people with small balances unuseable. This has resulted in all major business enterprise moving away from BTC for payment. Steam (online games), Microsoft, Bitpay, More here )

Lastly I would like to draw your attention to future developments. The one killer feature that will enable the move into mass adoption is a wallet that is totally secure that even your grandma can't lose her coins using it. nChain promises to come up with this. I understand this is a patented technology that nChain will provide free for Bitcoin Cash developers to use. Meaning that BTC cannot use this technology. Is it bad? nChain is a for profit company and they argue that it is their property and therefore they have a right to choose how and who uses it.

Bitcoin brought about a boom for developers all over the world to start making and building all sorts of applications on Bitcoin. Unfortunately high fees killed all that and most projects were abandoned, shelved, or migrated to other platforms. These projects now find a second life and there is a resurgence of enthusiasm and activity because of Bitcoin Cash.

The only thing I know of happening on BTC is Lightning. Until that comes nothing can really move forward with BTC on the development front as they have killed every other use case except for being a store of value. Yes maybe Lightning will get here soon, and yes maybe it will be bug free and yes maybe there will still be people around to use it, but that is alot of ifs. I see BTC as moving into the sunset and BCH as the morning sunrise. The Flippening.


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Note about fees :- If you are confused about the different fees from $20 to $300 being quoted for sending BTC, it is because they are both right. The fee you pay to move a certain value depends on its' makeup. The balance in your account is the total of all the unspent inputs. If you have to add all these to send one larger value output then you will use more data space and so pay more fees. Sending a smaller output from a large input incurs the lowest fees.

Note : On the subject of Satoshi

Satoshi is a threat to Core if his identity is confirmed, because he would command respect and authority among the community. They will do everything in their power, much like the campaign against BCH, to discredit him if it came to that. Even if he did successfully sign the message it only proves having access to the keys. Not that he is Satoshi. It is up to you to decide based on the evidence.

That aside, if you were not Satoshi,  why would you want to go through the process of proving that you were?

You will need to demonstrate you have the knowledge and ability to invent Bitcoin.
On a personal level you need to know every detail, every event and every personalities that Satoshi should have known.
You would also have to pass the "Gavin's Test", meaning demonstrating an intimate knowledge of a shared event or memory you had with him. Would you put yourself through all that if you cannot guarantee the outcome? All it would take was for Gavin to say "no he is not who I believe was the person who communicated with me as Satoshi." and that would be the end of it.
And for what? A Nobel prize?

But look at the consequences. You have just confirmed to the world that you are in ownership of 1 million Bitcoins. You and the people around you will never be able to live a normal life.

Something not mentioned much was that the first version of the Bitcoin software was written by someone "quite archaic" in software programming meaning that it is not done in the modern disciplined manner in writing software today. It reeks of "old fashion", possibility written by someone who does not write software for a living.

Thursday, January 4, 2018

Ripple May Be Number 1 In Market Cap Soon - NOT

Why Ripple will be Number 1 in Market Cap soon.

Ripple is now worth $3.68 with a market Cap of $142 billion. Many of us are surprise by this development including myself. Seems that the rumour of Coinbase listing ripple is what driving Ripple's price. I think that this is unlikely for the fact that Ripple is a centralised token. When Ripple gets to $5.00 it will become the number 1 in Market Cap. Should we be alarm that the bankers are taking over? 

If we look at the trading in the last 24 hours for Bitcoin and Ripple. More than $5 billion in fiat moved into the crypto space through Ripple, while only $1 billion of fiat move in through BTC. This is a huge change. BTC has always been the gateway for fiat to on ramp into the crypto space. At this rate Ripple will get to Number 1 by next week.

Note: There was a video of a Coinbase pages presumbly showing Ripple integration. If this was manufactured then there are parties going to great lengths to pump up Ripple's prices. The biggest push to Ripples's price is really the XRP/KRW  XRP/JPY XRP/USD pairs traded giving it a fiat on ramp to te crypto space.

Update 7.1.2018  Looks like the Ripple pump is over. Volume have shifted back to BTC.

Why Ripple ?

I think that institutional money have started moving into the crypto space. It did not come in through BTC because these investors do not want to drive up the price of BTC to astronomical valuations enriching those who got into this space early.

So I expect to see the value of BTC going to $5000 and perhaps lower in the near term. I also think that it is unlikely that value will remain in Ripple as it is a centralised token. I suspect that value will flow into the new utility blockchains like Cardano, Bitshares, Steem, EOS, Etc. as these blockchains mature.

So what happens to Bitcoin ?

In this new phase with the market cap of crypto exceeding 1 trillion dollars, BTC dominance will dip below 15%. The tussle between BTC and BCH for dominance will be irrelevant. With so much fresh money coming into this space, all cryptos including scams will rise with the tide. However in the long run every blockchain including BTC will need to carve out a real use case to be relevant.

Saturday, December 30, 2017

High Fees Is An Extinction Event

Make no mistake. The rats are scrambling off this BTC sinking ship. High Fees is an extinction event. Like all extinction events there is always a group of loutish and very vocal band of hard core deniers. Their arguments are hypocritical, and their reasoning always seem incomplete.

BTC dominance below 40%

Today BTC dominance dropped to 38.4%. Total Market Cap is still 600 billion. This means that value have flowed to other currencies this time to Ripple. Value flows to crypto through BTC because it is the main bridge with all fiat currencies.

This happened before when value flowed to Ethereum. That was stopped in its' track because Ethereum encountered several major problems. ( DAO, more hacks and scaling issues )

Will Ripple become the new No 1 crypto coin?

Possible but it will be temporary, until BCH takes over. This upsurge is a pump and FOMO event, timely as many investors are looking to exit BTC. The fact that bankers like it strengthens their believe that this could be a major crypto coin. Again do not be fooled. Ripple is nothing but a token. Issued by a central authority. 38 billion are in circulation and 62 billion is in reserve.

It is not a mineable coin ( POW or POS) It is just issued (printed) out of thin air. Its value is in saving banks and financial institutions billions in interbank transfer fees. For this system to work it needs a large market cap. It certainly has that now. Banking transfer systems like SWIFT will not be silent in the face of this development eating into their business model.

It will be an intermediary token for financial institutions to move value among themselves. In short Ripple is not an everyday currency to be used by common folks. I don't think there is even a wallet for it. I suspect that most are held on exchanges and by the banks.

High fees is an extinction event.

Anybody who has a sizeable BTC holding is certainly now worried that their "store of value" may be in jeopardy. As we can see most of this value is moving to Ripple. When they realise that Ripple cannot be a store of value, much of that value will look for a new home - Bitcoin Cash.

Bitcoin Cash is the real bitcoin. It always was. The fork was BTC which added Segwit. Bitcoin Cash is still the same Bitcoin that I knew and loved in 2013. More and more people are beginning to realise this, as they find that they can no longer use their bitcoin to transact. All businesses that use to accept bitcoin have stopped accepting it.

The only argument left is for it to be a "store of value" and that is gone too, now that value have moved to Ripple! of all things. I guess people still want to trust banks. But they have to realise that banks do not own Ripple, and Ripple does not represent shares in the banking system.

Bitcoin will still achieve valuation of 100,000 and even 1 million a coin.

However that is in reference to Bitcoin Cash. This will happen when BTC is booted off the bitcoin mining algorithm. For me this can't happen soon enough. Bring on the Chain Death Spiral.

What are miners are waiting for? They are in control of BTC's fate.

What do you know. BTC's hashrate just plummeted 6EH from 18 to 12 and still dropping. Maybe this is the flippening happening now. Watch BCH price action to confirm.

Wednesday, December 20, 2017

Merry Christmas From Bitcoin Cash - It Is The Flippening

Woo-we. What a day we had yesterday. This was my post yesterday when Bitcoin Cash was at 0.11. It has double to .22 in less than 24 hours. Was it prescient? No. It is the same story line that I have been pushing these last few months. Let us recap.

Update 23/12/2017 : The reason BTC price is going down is because people are exiting. Proof BCH is going up. The flippening is happening. Enterprise are leaving BTC because fees and confirmation times are too high. BCH transactions and hashrate increasing. Value flows to Alts through BTC, and as it does BTC dominance reduces, now down to 44%. When Viabtc leads the way with Coinex, BCH will take over this function.

    
     Of course it does not matter if CSW is Satoshi, but if you did think or believe he was, you would have bought into Bitcoin Cash, and look at how much you would have benefited financially. Blind faith? Not really. 
   
     CSW is the most fertile mind in the crypto space. Not just technically but economically and philosophically as well. If he is leading an equally competent team at nChain and putting his support behind Bitcoin Cash then you should take notice. CSW through nChain have openly said that they will give free access to Bitcoin Cash for some patents owned by nChain. This is a huge endorsement for Bitcoin Cash.

Bitcoin was hijacked.

    Those of us who have been long enough in this space, live through the scorn, ridicule, and pain in promoting a nascent technology which we know in our hearts then will change the world. Bitcoin would not be where it is if not for people like Gavin Andresen, Roger Ver, Rick Falkinge, and many more like them who promoted the idea of Bitcoin with a passion. 

     The cracks appeared with the scaling debated though the stage was set with the funding for developers when bitcoin was worth only $200. The Bitcoin Foundation fell to the wayside and the /money men moved in with Blockstream. Bitcoin Reddit was heavily censored, Gavin was pushed out of Bitcoin Core and the early evangelist were demonised, to be replaced by developers who presumably knows what is best for the rest of us.

       Fortunately Bitcoin by design is anti-fragile. If a chasm appear that is deep enough and consensus cannot be reached, the community will fork. This is freedom at its' very best. Bitcoin Cash was just such a fork. It represents the hearts and minds and aspirations of the early adopters and evangelists who harbored Satoshi's vision.

       The people supporting Bitcoin Core pushed the narrative that Bitcoin Cash is an alt coin fork like Bitcoin Gold, Bitcoin Diamond and countless others coming up. It is not. It can be and will be the original bitcoin because it has the same mining algorithm. The other forks are just alt coin clones, because they cannot exist on the same mining algorithm as BTC and BCH even if they contain the genesis block. Do not be fooled.

       Core has been very successful in pushing forward their agenda convincing the majority of the community on all the social media forums, in pushing their narrative, and they do it to a point of incredulity that you would not expect from smart and intelligent people. My only explanation is that these people were seduced by the technology. 

       It is sad that they of all people should know that the computer field has always been seduced by people pushing vapor ware and we always move forward with what we got, and what we have now was a simple blocksize increase to solve the transaction backlog issue. That such an easy solution was resisted should have raised flags among these people. I can only surmise that this is a symptom of cultist behavior. The tide is turning and most of these people will come to their senses. When you are so used to the dark, your eyes have to adjust to the dawn.

The Consequences Of Bitcoin going to zero.
    
     Bitcoin (BTC) and Bitcoin Cash (BCH) are like 2 Siamese twins on the same body. When we look at the price of Bitcoin now, we should add the price of both coins. This situation is precarious and unstable for BTC because without the Emergency Difficulty Adjustor it cannot survive on the same mining algorithm as BCH. BTC is forever just one price crash away from oblivion through the Chain Death Spiral.

     My greatest worry in the consequences of BTC going to zero was that innocent people will be hurt. Many who owned BTC before the 1 August fork have heeded Core supporters call and sold their BCH as dividends. Some purchase BTC after the fork at prices as high as $19,000. They are now left with BTC that they can't move. I feel nothing but sorrow for their plight. I am truly sorry. Our voices were too small to counter the censorship and the vast and extensive social media propaganda of Core supporters.

      Just last week Xapo sold the last of their Bitcoin Cash and converted all their customers accounts to BTC. I warned in the article BTC is dead long live BTC ELI5 that as custodians these people have a fiduciary duty of care to not put funds entrusted to them at a non zero existential risk. If Wences Cesares, a smart and early promoter of Bitcoin can fall into this trap shows the depth of deception that have occurred. Wences will pay a very heavy price for this decision. Xapo as a company may not survive BTC fall to zero which can happen very quickly, perhaps even before the New Year. The losses and coming litigations will be insurmountable.

BTC as a store of value coin

    BTC cannot be a store of value if its' price can drop by 30 - 50%. I find it difficult to understand the reasoning of core supporters when they accept this reality and at the same time argue that it is a store of value. The same logic is at odds when they argue that a store of value coin need not be useful for everyday transactions. It is its' usefulness as a currency that gives it its' store of value property. Not the other way round.

    Most of these people are smart, intelligent and have foresight, or they would not have been early adopters. Yet in many cases these same people have acted against their own self interest. If BTC goes to zero many stand to lose all they have worked for in storing their wealth as BTC.

How soon to the flippening.
    It can' be too far off. The last time BCH reached .22 the flippening nearly happened. This time the majority of hashrate is still with BTC holding off the Chain Death Spiral, but for how long? some of the factors slowing the inevitable are ;

a) Large holders of BTC know that they have to support BTC price and sell down the price of BCH. Most of these whales have already sold off their BCH and so their ability to sell down the price of BCH is limited. In any case they will find a huge buy wall that will eat up anything they throw at it. 

Buying up the price of BTC is an admission that they have made the wrong choice and they are doing it just to buy time for disposing off their BTC in an orderly manner and limiting their loss.

b) Miners have not moved wholesale to BCH because the fees in BTC are higher than the coin subsidy from mining. It is estimated that the fee back log is as high as 1000 BTC. As long as fees are high and as long as the price of BTC holds up they will keep mining BTC. This equation is changing fast.

c) As the price of BTC drops the price of BCH increases. More and more people will make this connection. Already those holding BCH feel secure while those holding BTC are increasing insecure. At .25 the tide has changed and my guess is that at .33 the flippening will really get on it's way, and at .50 it is THE END. 






    
    

Tuesday, December 19, 2017

Back To The Future With Bitcoin Cash & The Shape Of Things To Come.



Non activation of Segwit2X was intentional, dishonest and a fraud

This half confession and analysis by Two Bit Idiot (Politics Religion and Bitcoin) is an honest and candid appraisal of the mindset and thinking of people on both side of the divide.

Segwit2X was never meant to be activated. It was a ruse to get miners agreement for activating Segwit. They were not told that btc1 had faulty code until the cancellation of Segwit2X. The 93% who were warned took action to prevent activation but the 7% that ran the code got their "surprise".

Big block miners were fooled once, ( Hong Kong Conference ) fooled twice, ( NYA Agreement ) and finally F**#ed over with intentionally buggy code. Coders of Jeff Garzick caliber do not write rookie error buggy code unintentionally. It is a wonder how some seemingly incorrigible people we look up to, are willing to prostitute themselves. This guy no longer has any credibility. He is making another attempt with United Bitcoin. Don't get caught in this scam. Avoid anything he does like the plague.

The Chain Death Spiral hangs over BTC like the "Sword Of Damocles"

As long as BTC is on the same mining algorithmn as BCH, BTC is always in danger of annihilation.

1) Price Action.

The new CBOE and CME futures market increases the likelihood of BTC price being shorted. Such a drop in price for BTC, will lead to miners moving to the BCH chain and putting BTC in danger of the Chan Death Spiral.

2) BTC is a Ponzi scheme

BTC is progressively losing users mainly to BCH as fees go higher and confirmation times gets longer. Erosion of existing user base makes it reliant on uninformed new users to prop up its' value. The system will collapse when this flow of new money stops, making it a Ponzi scheme.

BTC have not had a major price correction since the last correction from 8,000 to 5000 when Segwit2X was cancelled. That event very nearly caused the flippening. It is finally correcting now. If it gets caught in the Death Spiral again, this time it will not get out.

3) Store Of Value

The proposal that BTC be use only as a store of value and not as a transactional currency does not fly. The first ever recorded use of BTC was the purchase of a pizza. Today the transaction fees are in excess of the price of a pizza. A coin that is not useful cannot maintain a value.

The stated purpose for high fees is to push users towards off chain solutions like the lightning network. However BTC no longer have a monopoly in this space and must compete for users. Gaining adoption is hard, and there are not many users left to use the lightning network if and when it is released. After 5 months Segwit is hardly used. Core has to react to the market and not attempt to drive the market. Governments do that. ( Picking winners and losers)

Is Bitcoin A Bubble 

Bitcoin is an asset class that undergoes periodic bubbles. meaning that after each crash it will recover to make higher highs. The last Mt Gox crash took three years to recover its' previous high. Today BTC is in another periodic bubble. However this time things could be different. This time it could really crash to zero and never recover.

Core have turned BTC into a Ponzi scheme and like all ponzi schemes when the participants realise that there is really no economic value produced in the scheme, it will collapse dramatically.

When this BTC bubble burst, Bitcoin Cash will be the new Bitcoin. There will be no other forks of bitcoin because none can compete on the same mining algorithm.

A Generational Wealth Transfer Of Epic Proportions.

What we are witnessing is a transfer of wealth accumulated over generations currently in the hands of a small elite, to a new generation of  libertarians, anarchist and crypto savy nerds. Young computer savy kids not even out of their teens are becoming millionaires overnight.

Wall Street is terrified. Never have they seen so much money flow so quickly into a sector that they don't understand, don't control, and are unable to react to effectively.

Scaling - The next big challenge for cryptos

Both BTC and Ethereum networks are clogged up because they are unable to scale to the unexpected demand for transaction. To this extent even Litecoin is being co-opted to fill this demand and as a result the price of Litecoin have increased tremendously over the last week.

It is not inconceivable that even Litecoin will reach its' transaction limit. Bitcoin Cash has shown that with block size of 8MB and increasing to 32MB it can handle the transaction demand now. A massive negative campaign launch against it by the BTC supporters and having to rebuilt its' whole infrastructure means that it is virtually unknown among new crypto investors.

These barriers are quickly coming down. Already OKex and soon CoinEX will be trading BCH based trading pairs. Bitcoin.com will soon offer a Bitcoin Cash Visa debit card. Businesses are changing to Bitcoin Cash for faster and cheaper transaction. These developments in Bitcoin Cash will erode BTC's user base over time. The day is not far off when BTC will succumb to the Chain Death Spiral.

The Shape Of Things To Come.

There will be many token each specialising in different use cases and segments of the industry. This is my analysis on how the crypto market will shape out.

Currency, Store Of value, Smart Contract : Bitcoin Cash ( BTC will go to zero )
Privacy : Zcash  ( No Premine )
Tokenisation, ICOs : Ethereum ( Already the best use case )
Data Access, Web Pages : EOS ( Unlimited free transactions )

1) Social Media

The future of the World Wide Web is the blockchain. All the web pages on Steemit, is stored on the Steemit blockchain. Steemit already handles more transactions than BTC, Ethereum and BCH combined and it is free to access.

There was a time when I thought that micro transactions was the killer app for cryptos. However I now believe that micro transaction may be suitable for the internet of things, but for social networks, it introduces friction. Facebook could never scale if users had to pay fees to access it.

2) Decentralised Marketplace

The future of the market is peer to peer and decentralised. Bitsquare, Open Bazaar, Bitshares. Centralised exchanges will be dominant for years to come but look out for peer to peer to improve and gain dominance in the coming years.

3) Collapse of BTC

As BTC's valuation goes higher its' user base actually gets smaller as less people can afford to hold and use it. BTC's position on the same mining algorithm as BCH is unstable. Collapse is inevitable. The risk of putting your money in Bitcoin is high.

People who still support BTC and claim that it will become a reserve currency for international transactions are deceiving themselves. Without the power of the open source development community, it is noting but a FED COIN.